The Determinants Of Inflation In The Democratic Republic of the Congo: An Econometric Study (2005-2015)

Name: Christian Ndege Kobunda
Type: MSc dissertation
Publication date: 19/06/2019

Namesort descending Role
Edson Zambon Monte Co-advisor *
Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira Advisor *

Examining board:

Namesort descending Role
Cláudio Márcio Pereira da Cunha External Examiner *
Edson Zambon Monte Co advisor *
Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira Advisor *

Summary: In many emerging and underdeveloped countries supply shocks have
proven to be the major cause of inflation since the 2000s. Changes in
commodity prices and the nominal exchange rate have proved to be relevant for understanding the dynamics of inflation. Based on this problem, this paper aims to analyze the determinants of inflation between January 2005 and December 2015 by using the vector autoregressive model (VAR). With impulse response functions (FRis) and the decomposition of the prediction error variance, it is possible to verify that inflation suffers with commodity price shocks. However, the exchange rate passthrough is the main cause of inflation, since it is statistically significant, and the interest rate is an insignificant instrument for fighting inflation.

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