Name: MATHEUS ZONTA GUIMARÃES CHRIST
Publication date: 03/03/2026
Examining board:
Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| BALMORE ALIRIO CRUZ AGUILAR | Examinador Externo |
| CELSO BISSOLI SESSA | Presidente |
| HILTON MANOEL DIAS RIBEIRO | Examinador Interno |
Summary: This study aimed to measure and discuss the structural change of the Brazilian economy between 2000 and 2021, understood as significant transformations in the sectoral composition of the productive structure, in intersectoral linkages, and in the way output is generated, based on the analysis of annual input–output matrices. The central motivation lies in the importance of understanding the functioning and dynamics of the productive structure for the interpretation of the economic phenomena that occurred in the first two decades of the twenty-first century. This approach finds theoretical support in classical literature, such as Hirschman (1958) and Myrdal (1957), and engages with previous studies, particularly Pires (2013), by extending the period analyzed and employing an unprecedented series of annual matrices disaggregated into 51 sectors. Methodologically, the input output model is applied to Brazil’s matrices, covering all years within the period considered. The use of a specific matrix for each year provides greater precision in the analysis of long-term structural transformations, allowing variations to be captured in greater detail. The results indicate movements without abrupt changes in sectoral orientations, in terms of linkage indices. The observed transitions are restricted to adjacent categories, and the maintenance of virtually the same key sectors throughout the period suggests a limited structural change, in line with the literature. No clear evidence of a generalized loss of intersectoral dynamism is identified, only occasional fluctuations in the variation coefficients. There is, however, a generalized increase in import penetration coefficients in 2021 compared to 2000, indicating possible demand leakages, although this interpretation requires further investigation. Structural decomposition analysis reveals that variations in output are largely explained by changes in demand, with a low technological contribution. The findings reinforce the need for public policies that explicitly consider existing productive linkages, guiding economic policy toward sectors with greater capacity to generate growth, and point to the use of input–output matrices as a permanent tool to support policy formulation.
