Total factor productivity and the Phillips Curve: evidences for brazilian economy
Name: LEONARDO BIANCHI DOS SANTOS
Publication date: 28/07/2017
Advisor:
Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| RICARDO RAMALHETE MOREIRA | Advisor * |
Examining board:
| Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| EDSON ZAMBON MONTE | Internal Examiner * |
| RICARDO RAMALHETE MOREIRA | Advisor * |
Summary: There is a reasonable understanding in economic literature of the importance of productivity in long-term growth. However, few studies analyze the relation between productivity and the inflationary dynamics in short term. The objective of this study is to fill this gap for the
Brazilian economy. Firstly, this thesis studies the theoretical principles that support the correlation between productivity and inflation. Next, it lists the empirical studies of the Brazilian economy that cover these two variables. Finally, it estimates the impact of productivity in inflation through a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), with the parameter
of total factor productivity (TFP), based on data for the Brazilian economy in the period between january 2003 to december 2015. The results of the regressions by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and by Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) point to the presence of
negative correlation between the tested measures of productivity and the monthly inflation index, in spite of the sensitivities of this correlation to the specifications of the models. The use of a vector autoregressive (VAR) as an analysis of robustness confirms the benign impact
of a growth in TPF in the inflationary dynamics in short term for the Brazilian economy.
